Economic Events to Watch Out For
For traders eyeing the most potent candlesticks this week, the calendar on 09‑10‑2025 and 09‑11‑2025 pits the United States against the Eurozone and the broader global macro‑environment in a showdown of policy cues and inflation data. The following high‑impact releases should dominate your watchlist:
- U.S. Core PPI (M/M) – 09‑10‑2025 at 12:30pm – Expected 0.3% rise versus the 0.9% market consensus.
- U.S. PPI (M/M) – 09‑10‑2025 at 12:30pm – Same expectation as Core PPI: 0.3% versus 0.9% consensus.
- U.S. CPI (M/M) – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:30pm – Forecast 0.3% on 0.2% previous, matching the 0.2% consensus.
- U.S. CPI (Y/Y) – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:30pm – Forecast 2.9% against 2.7% market consensus.
- U.S. Core CPI (M/M) – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:30pm – Forecast 0.3% on 0.3% previous, mirroring 0.3% consensus.
- U.S. Unemployment Claims – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:30pm – Forecast 234K on 237K previous; consensus 220‑240K.
- Main Refinancing Rate (Eurozone) – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:15pm – 2.15% unchanged, suggesting the ECB’s policy stance remains steady.
- Monetary Policy Statement (Eurozone) – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:15pm – Uncertainty remains around future tightening, given the varying data streams.
- ECB Press Conference – 09‑11‑2025 at 12:45pm – No concrete policy decision, but expect statements on the inflation outlook and the possible pause in tightening.
- Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment – 09‑12‑2025 at 2:00pm – Forecast 58.0 vs. 58.6 previous, signalling a modest dip.
Market Trends and Analysis
In recent weeks the U.S. dollar resists a hard‑down trend, as commodity‑linked and risk‑on currencies like the Australian dollar and the British pound have eroded. However, the dollar remains buoyant relative to the euro, driven in part by the ECB’s tentative stance and the market’s expectation of high inflation persistence. The technical landscape showcases the dollar pairing against the euro hovering just above the 1.065 level at 1‑hour trend, with a strong moving average crossover at 55‑period, hinting at a potential short‑to‑mid‑term reversal if the U.S. data outpaces expectations. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (AUD) has been catching the bottom of a rally as the correlation between the AUD and natural‑gas spot has strengthened. The AQN‑20 economic data has reinforced a bullish view for the Australian central bank’s forward‑rate curve, which shows a gradual easing path into next year. The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure, with the British pound missing the 1.260 bid on Friday, this week’s anticipation of the GDP outlook is likely to reinforce this wick. Indices for Japan and Canada appear quiet, awaiting policy signals from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada, respectively.On a global scale, commodity markets have seen a subdued growth in crude oil inventories, followed by a 5k‑bar sell‑off in the contracts. Oil prices stabilised near $84, sidelining the demand outlook for the coming months as new U.S. production forecasts have caught the global supply curve. Natural gas storage reports show mild increases, leaving the market reliant on the upcoming supply‑side data releases.
Trading Opportunities
Multiple statistical releases open windows for short‑term and mid‑term trades. Here are three actionable themes to consider, all of which maintain the 1:2 risk‑reward ratio as a baseline for execution:
- USD vs. Euro – Awaiting ECB Signals
Given the muted euro response to higher Eurozone inflation numbers, the EPS (European Policy Strength) indicator stays level. A breakout above 1.068 in the pause‑tightening scenario could trigger a bullish bias for USD/EUR. Plan a short entry at 1.071 with an initial stop 30 pips below. If the euro holds beyond 1.075, trail the stop. Key levels: 1.070 (support) and 1.080 (resistance).
Residual risk is contained to the next week’s US CPI releases, after which the market may realign with the 1.063‑1.065 range in a pullback. - AUD vs. USD – Interest‑Rate Decoupling
With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy‑rate at 2.35% and the New Zealand debt a tad weaker, the AUD/USD exchange rate shows a strong forward bias. Traders can open a long at 0.850 with an initial stop 25 pips below. A key protection point is at 0.830, while take‑profit can target 0.865, leveraging a 1:1.5 risk‑reward ratio. This move capitalises on the higher carry of the AUD and the potential decoupling of US treasury yields, which have plateaued after a recent decline. - US Consumer Sentiment Pullback – GBP/USD Short
The U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment dropped to 58.0 from 58.6, signalling a modest slowdown in discretionary spending. A subtle shift may push the GBP/USD down if the dollar gets a morale lift. A short at 1.230 with an initial stop at 1.240 offers both protection and the pullback. Targetting 1.210 keeps the trade within a 70‑to‑1 pip range. 60‑to‑1 pips risk equates to 10% of a 20,000‑unit position, aligning with typical risk‑reward expectations.
Conclusion
During the ensuing week, market participants will evaluate the United States’ price‑chain data and the European central bank decision map. A subtle divergence between the two economies is expected to manifest in the currency markets, potentially favouring the dollar against the euro in the medium term. Traders who can consistently pair statistically significant data releases (e.g., Core PPI, CPI) with technical confirmation (e.g., moving‑average crossovers, trend‑line breakouts) will be best positioned to capture the momentum without overleveraging. Balancing volatility with a robust risk‑management framework remains paramount, especially as the forex market continues its oscillation between risk‑on and risk‑off sentiment.
Risk Disclaimer
Trading involves risk and all funds are at risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is for informational purposes only. Use the information herein at your own discretion and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. All views expressed in this analysis are the sole opinions of the author and are not endorsed or verified by any official source. The author is not responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of this information.
Always use appropriate risk‑management tools, such as stop‑loss orders, and consider hedging strategies to protect capital.
Understand that economic data release timing can change and that market reaction may vary based on a multitude of global factors. Tailor the strategies outlined to your trading style, account size, and risk tolerance.
By continuing to trade, you acknowledge that you are responsible for your own trades and all associated risks.
