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- PBoC MLF Rate Decision (Tue): The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to maintain its 1-year MLF rate at 2.65%. Despite weak economic data, the central bank has pledged support for the economy through various measures. While it aims to maintain liquidity in the banking system, it’s unlikely to cut rates again soon after the June cut.
- RBA Meeting Minutes (Tue): The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from its recent meeting where it kept rates steady at 4.10%. The RBA remains committed to achieving its inflation target and acknowledges the uncertainty around household consumption.
- Japanese Prelim GDP (Tue): Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q2 is forecasted to grow by 0.8% Q/Q and 3.1% Y/Y. Mixed views exist, with ING suggesting a slightly slower growth rate due to factors like improved net exports and service activity recovery.
- Chinese Activity Data (Tue): Chinese July retail sales are expected to rise by 4.8% Y/Y, industrial production by 4.5% Y/Y, and fixed asset investments to remain at 3.8% Y/Y. Weak domestic and foreign demand concerns persist despite recent government support measures.
- UK Jobs Report (Tue): Unemployment rate in the UK is expected to remain at 4%. Wage growth is anticipated to be around 7.5%. The focus will be on wages’ impact on inflation and potential implications for policy decisions.
- US Retail Sales (Tue): US retail sales are predicted to increase by 0.4% M/M in July, reflecting a summer spending bounce. While lower- and middle-income households show resilience, higher-income households face pressures from slower wage growth and weaker labor markets.
- Canadian CPI (Tue): Canadian consumer price growth is likely to ease to 2.7% Y/Y in July. Core inflation, however, remains elevated, but weakening retail sales suggest core inflation might decrease later in 2023.
- RBNZ Announcement (Wed): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.50%. Recent data supports this stance, with inflation remaining high but projected to decrease within the target range by H2 2024.
- FOMC Minutes (Wed): The FOMC minutes from July’s meeting are not expected to hold surprises. The Fed‘s policy decisions remain data-dependent, with rate cuts potentially considered if inflation falls convincingly.
- UK Inflation (Wed): UK Y/Y CPI is projected to decrease to 6.7% from 7.9%. Falling energy prices might contribute to the decline. The Bank of England is likely to hike rates again in September.
- Norges Bank Announcement (Thu): Norges Bank might raise rates by 25bp to 4.00%. Elevated inflation and appreciating currency support this move, but the NOK’s recent appreciation might impact inflation trends.
- Australian Jobs Report (Thu): Australia’s employment is expected to increase by 21.5k in July. Labor demand data and work-hour restrictions for international students might influence the numbers.
- Japanese CPI (Fri): National core CPI in Japan is forecasted to cool to 3.1% in July. Recent changes in the BoJ’s inflation forecasts and Tokyo CPI suggest ongoing inflation dynamics.
- UK Retail Sales (Fri): Recent reports indicate a 1.8% Y/Y increase in UK retail sales in July. Damp weather affected spending, with a shift towards in-store purchases over online.
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